Disclaimer: The data introduced doesn’t represent monetary, funding, buying and selling, or different varieties of recommendation and is solely the author’s opinion
- BTC’s market construction on the entire appeared fairly bearish
- A pretend breakout to the upside might be adopted by a deep plunge towards $14K
In anticipation of the discharge of the FOMC minutes on 23 November, BTC regained the $16K stage and was up by 5%. It was buying and selling at $16.5K at press time, boosting the remainder of the altcoin market.
The same worth rally was seen earlier than the FOMC assembly and subsequent 75-point charge hike between 2 and three November. However BTC declined afterward, coinciding with the FTX implosion.
Learn Bitcoin’s [BTC] worth prediction 2023-2024
If historical past repeats itself, the present worth rally might be nipped within the bud by the continued FUD surrounding Genesis’ chapter. That might ship BTC plummeting towards the $14,000 mark in the long term.
Breakout from a descending triangle: Will the bears acquire the higher hand?
Supply: TradingView
BTC traded between $18.5K and $24K throughout mid-July and mid-November. The midpoint of this vary was $21.5K. Nonetheless, since mid-September, BTC has been buying and selling on the decrease facet of the vary and eventually broke by means of the help of the vary on 9 November.
BTC discovered new help on the 0% Fib stage at $15.5K and examined it thrice. The extra instances help or resistance is examined, the extra possible it’s to be damaged. On the time of writing, BTC was within the state of a worth restoration.
BTC’s worth motion over the previous two weeks fashioned a descending triangle (white traces) that was half of a bigger bearish pennant with a flagpole (blue line).
The present bearish triangle was additionally much like two earlier triangle chart patterns in July and October. In each instances, a false breakout to the upside was adopted by a worth drop. If historical past repeats itself, BTC may head decrease after breaking by means of the present $15.5K help with $14K as potential new help.
The bearish bias was additionally supported by the Relative Energy Index (RSI), which stood at 39. This confirmed that the bears nonetheless had leverage at press time. The On-balance Quantity (OBV) was additionally on a decline since September. This confirmed that the market construction on the every day chart nonetheless favored the sellers.
Nonetheless, a candlestick shut on the every day chart above the 23.6% Fib stage ($16.9K) would invalidate the bearish bias. Thus, affirmation of the breakout to the upside may coincide with a potential Shifting Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing. This might be a purchase sign for traders.
Unfavorable sentiment in BTC and worth/quantity divergence: Imminent worth reversal?
Supply: Santiment
Some on-chain metrics pointed in the direction of a bearish construction of BTC. In line with Santiment, BTC’s general weighted sentiment additional fell into detrimental territory, indicating a bearish outlook.
As well as, the latest worth rally has been accompanied by a decline in buying and selling quantity. This represented a price-volume divergence. Moreover, this additionally indicated a weakening shopping for strain, which may undermine a notable rally. Due to this fact, the bulls might be overwhelmed, and BTC may see a deeper plunge within the coming days or perhaps weeks.
BTC traders ought to comply with the FOMC minutes and the impression of Genesis’ alleged chapter in the marketplace to gauge sentiment and get a greater perspective on the potential worth route.