Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is inspecting the historic patterns of Bitcoin bear markets to estimate when BTC might backside out.
In a brand new technique session, Cowen says it could be cheap to count on a bottoming situation much like that of 2018, the place BTC’s value made a collection of barely larger lows earlier than sharply capitulating to new lows to succeed in its flooring.
“To this point in 2022 making the case for the underside has not likely served anybody nicely, and that’s why at first of the yr we stated, ‘Look, don’t spend an excessive amount of psychological power attempting to name a backside in 2022…’
Once you’re within the bear market, you simply give it slightly extra time and we are likely to go decrease.
When you had been to comply with an analogous sort of sample right here – we might type of extrapolate out the 200-day easy shifting common if it had been to proceed on down on its present trajectory, the place may it cross?”
Based mostly on the historic comparability, Cowen says {that a} potential capitulation occasion might happen round December twenty fifth of this yr, the place Bitcoin reaches its lowest level earlier than getting ready for an additional bull market.
“You can see that it could cross someplace in late December, proper round Christmas, December twenty fifth, December twenty sixth, December twenty seventh, across the holidays is the place it could cross.
I can’t actually say for positive, clearly, if it’s going to play out in the very same vogue however I’ll say this. This bear market has been happening for over a yr now, and traditionally, bear markets for Bitcoin final a few yr. The one in 2014 lasted 14 months, and the one in 2018 lasted about 12 months, so in that context you can argue that we’re nicely throughout the window as to when bottoms usually happen when it comes to time.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is swapping palms for $16,608, a fractional dip on the day.
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